This research investigates how propaganda transforms beliefs, turning neighbors into perceived enemies. By analyzing decades of media data from democratically declining societies and testing persuasive mechanisms experimentally, the project identifies which narratives most effectively fuel polarization, ethnic hatred, and democratic erosion—knowledge essential for resisting modern propaganda.

This thesis uses randomized polling to show that Iranians’ trust in government is driven primarily by practical benefits—healthcare, economic stability, and safety—not ideology. Human rights concerns and identity factors predict little. The findings reveal a global shift toward transactional trust, posing challenges for defending democratic values and civic institutions.